The Indian equity market enters Union Budget 2026 day on a cautious yet hopeful note. Despite sharp intraday swings and a weakening rupee, benchmarks have managed to hold near record highs, reflecting strong underlying confidence in India’s medium-term growth story. Investors are now positioning across budget-sensitive sectors, tracking earnings momentum, institutional flows, and global macro developments ahead of Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman’s speech.
This edition brings a complete market wrap and forward-looking analysis, covering budget themes, earnings reactions, sectoral leadership, stock-specific action, global cues, and technical levels to watch.
- Indian equities rose nearly 1% in the previous session despite sharp intraday volatility
- Sensex closed nearly 300 points lower, while Nifty slipped below 25,350, reflecting caution ahead of policy announcements
- Rupee hit a fresh lifetime low, raising concerns around imported inflation and capital flows
- Midcaps and smallcaps showed mixed trends, with sharp stock-specific moves driven by earnings and block deals
Market mood:
Investors are optimistic about long-term reforms but unwilling to take aggressive positions before clarity on fiscal discipline, capex allocation, and tax measures.
- Budget speech cues on capex growth, fiscal deficit, and consumption support
- Sector-specific announcements for railways, defence, housing, fertilisers, AI, and data centres
- Rupee movement and bond yields
- Reaction to overnight US Fed commentary
- Post-budget volatility spikes in derivatives and midcaps
- 🔹 Economic Survey Sets the Tone
- The Economic Survey acknowledges strong growth momentum but underlines the urgent need for:
- Deregulation-led reforms
- Flexible labour laws
- Faster liquidation and contract enforcement
- Predictable policy framework for capital-intensive sectors
- It projects FY27 GDP growth at 6.8–7.2%, higher than IMF and World Bank estimates.
- Markets are focused on three non-negotiables:
- Sustained public capex growth (10–15%)
- Fiscal discipline with deficit control
- Earnings revival in small and mid-cap companies
- Rather than giveaways, expectations are around tax simplification, execution continuity, and targeted incentives.
- 🚆 Railways & Infrastructure
- Stocks such as RITES, Titagarh Rail, Rail Vikas Nigam, CG Power are in focus as:
- Station redevelopment
- Safety upgrades
- Rolling stock expansion
- are expected to see continued funding support.
- 🛡️ Defence
- Market expects 8–10% rise in defence outlay
- Defence index logged its best weekly gain since May 2025
- Stocks like BEL, Mazagon Dock, GRSE, MTAR Tech remain structural plays
- 🏗️ Real Estate
- Hopes of continued urban housing push and infra linkages
- Stocks like Sunteck Realty, Oberoi Realty, Lodha Developers in focus
- 🌾 Fertilisers & Sugar
- Fertiliser sector seeks subsidy rationalisation and reform clarity
- Sugar companies expect MSP hike
- Balrampur Chini
- Shree Renuka Sugars
- Dalmia Bharat
- 🤖 AI, Data Centres & Digital Infra
- AI and data centre operators projected to grow 20–22% CAGR till FY28
- Budget clarity on power, land, and policy support could trigger rerating
- ✅ Positive Earnings Reactions
- Bajaj Auto:
- Q3 profit up 19% to ₹2,503 crore
- Strong export demand and margin stability
- Vedanta:
- Profit jumps 60% to ₹7,807 crore
- However, stock corrected on metal price weakness
- Tata Communications:
- Net profit up 55%, driven by digital services
- Paytm:
- Q3 profit ₹225 crore
- Revenue up 20%, marking sustained turnaround
- Tata Motors: Profit down 48% due to one-time costs
- Hindustan Zinc: Shares crashed 13% amid silver price collapse
- BEL: Declined up to 3% due to profit booking despite strong results
- Whirlpool of India: Fell 11% after promoter stake sale
- Silver prices crashed 25% on MCX, triggering sell-off in metal stocks
- Metal index fell nearly 5%
- CME raised margins on precious metals after historic volatility
- Stocks like Hindustan Zinc, Vedanta, SAIL faced heavy pressure
- FIIs turned buyers, purchasing ₹2,251 crore on Friday
- Net buyers post India-EU FTA optimism
- Morgan Stanley bought stakes in Sunteck Realty and Manappuram Finance
- Prosus invested ₹1,295 crore in Ixigo’s parent
- Promoter stake increases lifted Raymond Lifestyle and Raymond Realty
Large & Midcaps
Sun Pharma
Bajaj Auto
Dr Reddy’s Labs
Tata Communications
ITC
NTPC
ONGC
Oil India
PSU & Infra
BEL
BDL
GAIL India
L&T
RVNL
Banks & Financials
IDFC First Bank
Ujjivan Small Finance Bank
Bank of Baroda
Bandhan Bank
New-Age & Specialty
Delhivery
Affle 3i
Intellect Design Arena
Clean Science
Waaree Energies
- 🔼 Buy Calls
- TVS Motor – Target ₹4,461
- Maruti Suzuki – Target ₹18,197
- Tata Communications – Target ₹2,250
- Sunteck Realty – Target ₹567
- Bharat Electronics – Targets range ₹520–₹550
- ⏸️ Hold / Neutral
- AU Small Finance Bank
- Shoppers Stop
- Blue Star
- Gujarat State Petronet
- Brokerage commentary highlights earnings visibility and balance sheet strength as key stock-picking criteria.
- US Fed held rates steady, signaling prolonged pause
- Powell acknowledged tariff-led inflation risks
- Gold crossed $5,300/oz, benefiting from dollar weakness
- US equities declined amid AI spending concerns and earnings pressure
- Emerging markets rallied as dollar softened
- Nifty 50 range: 24,900 – 25,500
- Strong breakout only above 25,650–25,700
- Bank Nifty resistance: near 60,000
- Budget-day volatility expected to remain elevated
- Short-term volatility likely, especially in midcaps and thematic stocks
- Structural plays in infra, defence, manufacturing, and digital economy remain intact
- Markets will reward execution clarity over headline announcements
- Global cues and earnings trajectory will regain dominance post-budget
The Indian stock market stands at a critical junction as Budget 2026 unfolds. While near-term swings are inevitable, the broader narrative remains constructive, anchored by capex-led growth, improving corporate balance sheets, and India’s rising global relevance through trade agreements like the India-EU FTA.
For investors, this is less about chasing momentum and more about aligning portfolios with long-term structural themes that Budget 2026 is expected to reinforce.
Published by Barawakar |Indian Stock Market Today – 02 Feb 2026
Stay informed. Stay ahead.
Source
https://www.ptinews.com/business
https://www.livemint.com/companies/news/
https://www.moneycontrol.com/