Nifty Support at 23,000, Crude Oil, US-Iran Talks, IPOs and Stocks to Watch

The Indian stock market enters the week of September 28 with investors closely watching crude oil prices, US-Iran diplomatic developments, global bond yields, foreign institutional investor activity and key domestic economic data. The Nifty 50 is facing an important technical zone around 23,000, while the broader market has extended its losing streak.

The holiday-shortened trading week is expected to remain sensitive to global cues. US macroeconomic data, Federal Reserve commentary, movements in the dollar and Treasury yields, China’s holiday-related lower liquidity and developments around the Strait of Hormuz could influence market direction.

At the same time, the primary market remains active, with several IPOs and listings scheduled, while a number of corporate developments involving Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles, Mahindra, PB Fintech, Ola Electric, Wheels India, NTPC Green Energy and other companies are likely to remain in focus.

Indian Stock Market Outlook for September 28

The Nifty 50 has been under pressure and is heading towards a seventh consecutive weekly decline as crude oil prices, elevated bond yields and continued FII selling weigh on sentiment.

During the latest session, the index recovered from the day’s low and reclaimed the 23,100 level. The Sensex also recovered more than 250 points from its intraday low.

Market participants are now watching the 23,000 level closely.

Key Nifty levels to watch

• Immediate support: 23,000
• Next downside zone: 22,800–22,700
• Immediate resistance: 23,300
• Higher resistance zone: 23,500
• A sustained break below 23,000 could increase selling pressure.
• Holding above 23,000 could support a recovery towards 23,300–23,500.

Technical analysts cited in the market reports consider 23,000 a crucial near-term support zone.

Global Cues: US-Iran Talks and Crude Oil Remain Critical

Geopolitical developments are likely to remain one of the biggest drivers for Indian equities this week.

Investors are monitoring the progress of US-Iran diplomatic talks and developments surrounding the Strait of Hormuz. Any disruption to oil supplies could push crude prices higher and increase concerns about inflation and corporate margins.

Experts cited in the reports said US-Iran diplomacy and crude oil prices could have a significant influence on global market sentiment.

The broader commodity market is also facing divergent risks as investors await inflation and payroll data while uncertainty surrounding Hormuz diplomacy remains.

For India, higher crude prices can have implications for:

• Inflation
• The rupee
• Import costs
• Corporate margins
• Transportation expenses
• Paint, tyre and aviation companies
• Oil marketing companies
• Government finances

Crude-sensitive stocks have already experienced volatility as oil prices moved sharply higher.

US Bond Yields and Federal Reserve Commentary in Focus

Global bond markets remain another important factor for Indian equities.

The US 30-year Treasury yield recently moved above 5.5%, reaching levels not seen since 2004, according to the market report. The 30-year yield rose as high as 5.53%.
Higher US yields can affect emerging markets by influencing:

• Foreign portfolio flows
• The US dollar
• Emerging-market currencies
• Equity valuations
• Borrowing costs

US macroeconomic data and Federal Reserve commentary will therefore be important for determining the direction of global yields and the dollar during the week.

Wall Street Ends Higher

Despite concerns in the bond market, US equities ended the latest session higher as investors continued buying technology and artificial-intelligence-related stocks.

The figures show:

• S&P 500: +0.51% at 7,743.41
• Nasdaq: +0.48% at 27,068.72
• Dow Jones: +0.93% at 51,828.62

Microsoft was among the notable AI-related stocks supporting sentiment.

The performance of US technology stocks could provide some support to Indian IT and technology shares, although domestic and global yield concerns remain important.

Broader Indian Markets Extend Losing Streak

The weakness has not been limited to the Nifty 50.

The Nifty Midcap 100 declined around 2% during the week, with several stocks falling sharply.

Stocks highlighted in the report include:

• PB Fintech
• One 97 Communications (Paytm)
• Oracle Financial Services Software
• L&T Finance
• Container Corporation of India
• Adani Total Gas
• Tata Investment Corporation

Some of these stocks declined between 7% and 33% during the week.

Sector performance

Sectoral indices ended mixed:

• Nifty IT declined around 2.4%
• Nifty Private Bank declined around 1.5%
• Nifty Energy declined nearly 1%
• Nifty Realty gained around 3%
• Nifty Consumer Durables gained around 1%
• Nifty Pharma gained around 1%
• Nifty FMCG gained around 1%

This indicates that market leadership has remained selective rather than broad-based.

Stocks in Focus Today

Several corporate announcements and analyst actions could keep individual stocks active.

Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles

Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles expects to reach a 15% market share “very soon” and is targeting 20% by FY31, according to MD Shailesh Chandra.

However, the company is also facing pressure from commodity costs. Management expects commodity inflation to have an additional margin impact equivalent to around 3% of revenue in the July-September quarter.

The company is therefore facing a combination of market-share ambitions and near-term margin pressure.

Mahindra & Mahindra

Mahindra is considering another price increase for models including:

• Thar
• Scorpio
• XUV 7XO

The proposed increase would represent another round of price hikes for the automobile industry in 2026.

PB Fintech

PB Fintech remains under intense market scrutiny following proposed changes to insurance distribution and commission structures by IRDAI.

The stock suffered a 36% single-day decline, its worst since listing, after the proposal raised concerns about the company’s insurance distribution economics.

The reports indicate that management expects FY28 to be a transition year while it adapts its cost structure and distribution model.
HDFC Mutual Fund also bought 25 lakh shares of PB Fintech through a bulk deal, making the stock an important one to track.

Insurance Stocks

The proposed IRDAI changes have put several insurance-related stocks under pressure.

The reports highlight concerns around proposed caps on expenses and commissions.

For life insurers, the proposed expense-of-management limit could fall to:

• 15% of premium within two years
• 12.5% within five years

The proposed framework has also triggered significant attention from investors in insurers, banks, NBFCs and insurance-distribution businesses.

HDFC Life and ICICI Prudential Life were among the insurance stocks reported to have fallen sharply following the proposal.

Indegene

Indegene shares touched a more than one-year high after Motilal Oswal raised its target price.

The brokerage highlighted the increasing use of external partners by global life-sciences and pharmaceutical companies to reduce operating costs.

Motilal Oswal recommended a Buy rating with a target price of Rs 708, according to the report.

Radico Khaitan

Radico Khaitan shares gained as much as 3% after JM Financial initiated coverage with a positive view.

The brokerage expects the company’s premium portfolio to record a compounded annual sales growth of around 25% between FY26 and FY29.

Ola Electric

Ola Electric shares declined as much as 9%, ending a four-session winning run.

The move came ahead of a board meeting to consider a potential fundraise. The stock had gained more than 16% over the previous four trading sessions before the decline.

Meesho

Meesho shares fell around 6% after Nomura raised concerns over valuation and initiated coverage with a Reduce rating and a target price of Rs 167.

The company is likely to remain on investors’ radar following the recent volatility in the stock.

Wheels India

Wheels India plans to raise Rs 250 crore through a QIP at a price of Rs 2,088 per share.

The issue is expected to result in approximately 4.7% equity dilution. The company subsequently allotted around 11.97 lakh equity shares under the QIP.

NTPC Green Energy

NTPC Green Energy has commissioned 81.34 MW of solar capacity at Bikaner, Rajasthan, adding to its renewable-energy portfolio.

Separately, NTPC and France’s EDF Power Solutions have formed a 50:50 joint venture to develop low-carbon energy projects in India and neighbouring countries.

GAIL

Emkay Global Financial has recommended a Buy rating on GAIL with a target price of Rs 200, according to the research update.

Adani Power

Prabhudas Lilladher has recommended a Buy rating on Adani Power with a target price of Rs 259.

Pearl Global

Pearl Global has received positive coverage from multiple brokerages in the reports.

• Motilal Oswal target: Rs 1,500
• Emkay Global Financial target: Rs 1,400

These are brokerage views and should be considered separately from actual market performance.

Dr Lal PathLabs

Dr Lal PathLabs shares slipped after the acquisition of SN Genelab.

Nomura retained its Buy view with a target price of Rs 2,150, while Emkay Global Financial gave a target price of Rs 2,100.

IPO Market Remains Extremely Active

The Indian IPO market continues to remain busy despite the broader market weakness.

According to the data:

• 34 companies raised Rs 39,255.16 crore through public issues in September.
• So far in 2026, 96 mainboard IPOs have raised Rs 1,12,928.6 crore.
• Around 20 IPOs and 20 listings are lined up for the coming week.

Upcoming IPO developments

Several companies have filed draft papers with SEBI between September 21 and 26.

The proposed IPO proceeds are expected to be used for purposes including:

• Business expansion
• Working capital
• Debt repayment
• Other corporate requirements

The IPO pipeline remains active even as secondary-market sentiment stays cautious.

Dove Soft IPO

Dove Soft is scheduled to open its SME IPO next week.

The BSE SME issue has a price band of Rs 104–111 per share.

Other IPO developments

Air IQ has filed a confidential DRHP for a proposed Rs 1,000 crore IPO, while Cars24 has received approval for its reverse flip and plans to file IPO papers in India.
German Green Steel and Power has also received a “Subscribe” recommendation from Anand Rathi in the research report.

NSE Shares in Focus After Market Debut

NSE shares declined around 1.5% a day after their market debut, although brokerages reportedly see potential upside.

Macquarie described NSE as “The Dominator”, citing its leading market share and deep liquidity.
The stock’s early trading performance is likely to attract significant attention as investors assess its valuation and prospects following the listing.

Indian Rupee, Dollar and Crude Oil

The rupee remains under pressure from elevated crude prices and global currency movements.

The latest data shows the rupee closing at 95.80 against the US dollar, gaining 19 paise from the previous close.

The currency had opened at 95.92 and touched an intraday low of 95.94 before recovering.
The rupee’s direction will remain closely connected to:

• Crude oil prices
• US Treasury yields
• Dollar strength
• Foreign portfolio flows
• US-Iran developments
• India’s external-sector data

RBI and Interest Rate Expectations

Domestic monetary policy expectations are also attracting attention.

A poll of economists, treasury heads and fixed-income experts cited in the material showed a majority expecting the RBI’s Monetary Policy Committee to raise the repo rate by 25 basis points to 5.5%, while retaining its inflation and growth estimates.
Separately, market commentary suggests that the RBI’s stance could shift in October, with a possible rate increase being discussed for December. These are analyst expectations rather than confirmed policy decisions.

India’s Economy Shows Resilience

The RBI bulletin highlighted continued strength in India’s financial and external sectors, supported by the domestic economy.

The Indian economy recorded strong GDP growth in the first quarter of FY2026-27 despite a challenging global environment.
Foreign direct investment also increased:

• FDI rose 6% to $19.81 billion during April-June.
• Japan was the largest investor during the first quarter of FY27 at $5.71 billion.
• Singapore followed with $5.22 billion.
• US inflows declined sharply during the period.

Government Borrowing Remains in Focus

The Centre plans to borrow Rs 7.86 lakh crore during the second half of FY27.

The full-year market borrowing plan is nearly Rs 16 lakh crore, around Rs 1.20 lakh crore below the Rs 17.20 lakh crore projected in the FY27 Budget Estimates.
Bond yields and government borrowing requirements will therefore remain important for fixed-income and equity investors.

FMCG Sector Faces Volume Pressure

FMCG companies are facing a challenging operating environment.

NIQ data cited in the reports indicates that volume weakness widened beyond core FMCG categories, affecting 68% of categories, including biscuits, snacks and washing liquids.

Rising input costs and macroeconomic headwinds have added to the pressure on volumes.
Investors will therefore watch upcoming management commentary for signs of recovery in rural demand, urban consumption and input-cost trends.

India’s Semiconductor Opportunity

The AI boom and global supply-chain diversification are creating opportunities for India’s semiconductor industry.

A BCG assessment cited in the news highlights the potential for India to strengthen its position in the chip ecosystem as global companies look to diversify supply chains.

The semiconductor theme could remain relevant for investors tracking electronics manufacturing, technology infrastructure and industrial-capex opportunities.

Fujiyama Power Systems to Set Up Solar Cell Plant

Fujiyama Power Systems is setting up a 1.2 GW solar cell manufacturing plant in Madhya Pradesh.

The greenfield project is expected to begin production using advanced TOPCon technology by the end of the current financial year.

The project is part of efforts to strengthen the domestic solar manufacturing value chain.

Other Corporate Developments to Track

Several additional company-specific developments could influence individual stocks:

• Maruti Suzuki commissioned its first green hydrogen plant at its Haryana facility.
• ONGC reported a gas discovery near the Odisha coast in the Mahanadi deepwater basin.
• JSW Energy received a turbine-generator order for the 1,600 MW Salboni Phase-II project.
• RailTel received an IT infrastructure services order from the Central Mine Planning & Design Institute.
• SAIL signed an MoU with BCCL for joint development of coal blocks.
• RCFL received a Rs 797 crore order from Larsen & Toubro.
• Balrampur Chini Mills received a Rs 75 crore BioE3 grant for a PLA co-polymer R&D facility.
• Promoter Group of Aequs committed a Rs 650 crore capital infusion.
• Highness Microelectronics received a Rs 6 crore order for medical displays and equipment.
• Sanofi India received a Rs 23.74 crore GST show-cause notice.
• Utkarsh Small Finance Bank allotted NCDs aggregating Rs 300 crore.

Bank Strike Update

The news initially contained reports about a three-day bank strike scheduled for September 28–30. However, later updates in the same source indicate that the proposed strike was deferred, with banks expected to remain open on September 28.

Therefore, investors and customers should rely on the latest official communication from their bank and the relevant banking organisations for service-related information.

Key Events to Watch This Week

The holiday-shortened trading week could remain volatile as several domestic and international factors converge.

Key factors for investors

• Nifty 50’s ability to hold the 23,000 support
• US-Iran diplomatic developments
• Crude oil and Strait of Hormuz developments
• US Treasury yields
• Federal Reserve commentary
• US inflation and payroll data
• Foreign institutional investor flows
• Rupee-dollar movement
• RBI monetary policy expectations
• India’s industrial and high-frequency economic data
• IPO subscriptions and new listings
• Corporate announcements and fundraising activity
• China’s holiday-related reduction in market liquidity

The market outlook specifically highlights IIP and other high-frequency macroeconomic indicators as important domestic data points during the week.

Market Wrap: What Investors Should Watch on September 28

The Indian stock market begins the new week at an important technical and fundamental juncture.

The 23,000 level on the Nifty 50 remains the key near-term reference point. A sustained move below this zone could expose the index to the 22,800–22,700 area, while a recovery and sustained hold above 23,000 could bring 23,300–23,500 into focus.

At the broader level, crude oil, global bond yields, the rupee, FII flows and geopolitical developments are likely to determine the market’s risk appetite.

Meanwhile, the IPO market remains exceptionally active, corporate fundraising continues and several companies have announced expansion plans, new orders, acquisitions and renewable-energy projects.

For investors, the September 28 trading session is therefore likely to be driven by a combination of global cues, technical levels, crude oil movements, institutional flows and stock-specific corporate developments rather than by a single market trigger.

Disclaimer

This article is for educational and informational purposes only and is based on the news and market information for this report. Brokerage ratings, target prices and analyst views mentioned above are attributed opinions and should not be treated as guaranteed outcomes. Investors should conduct their own research and consider their financial objectives and risk tolerance before making investment decisions.