Indian equity markets witnessed another volatile phase as foreign investor selling, a sharply weaker rupee, and heavy IPO supply kept sentiment fragile. Despite strong domestic institutional buying and selective sectoral strength, benchmarks struggled to sustain upside momentum, reinforcing the idea that markets have entered a stock-picker’s phase rather than a broad rally.
- Equity benchmarks slipped around 0.5% for the week, reflecting pressure from global uncertainty and currency weakness.
- The rupee closed at a historic low of 91.03 against the US dollar, spilling over into equities and raising concerns on imported inflation.
- Reliance Industries, Maruti Suzuki, Tata Steel, and Titan added the most market value this week, even as broader indices stayed under pressure.
- Institutional Flow Trends
- FIIs net sellers: ₹2,382 crore
- DIIs net buyers: ₹1,077 crore
- 2025 full-year data highlights a structural shift:
- FIIs sold equities worth ₹2.67 lakh crore
- DIIs bought a record ₹7.20 lakh crore, the highest ever in a single year
- ➡️ This divergence underscores the growing role of domestic capital in stabilising Indian markets.
- Nifty 50
- Immediate resistance: 26,000–26,100
- Key supports: 25,750–25,700
- Bears gain control if Nifty slips decisively below 25,800
- Bank Nifty
- Slipped below its 20-DEMA, indicating short-term exhaustion
- Crucial support zone near 59,200
- Weekly options data suggests traders are positioning defensively, with limited appetite for aggressive upside bets.
- Bank stocks extended gains for the third consecutive session, recovering nearly 1% intraday.
- IDFC First Bank and Canara Bank led the rally, supported by valuation comfort and improving balance-sheet expectations.
- Experts continue to favour private banks and select PSU lenders as relative safe havens amid broader volatility.
- Near-Term Pressure
- M&M, Eicher Motors, and Bajaj Auto declined up to 2%, driven by:
- Mexico’s steep 50% tariff hike on select imports
- Profit booking after recent rallies
- Export-related uncertainty
- Medium-Term Outlook
- Citi remains constructive on the sector, citing:
- Macro tailwinds
- Rising vehicle penetration
- Rural recovery and infrastructure push
- Top Picks for 2026:
- Maruti Suzuki
- Mahindra & Mahindra
- ICICI Prudential AMC IPO
- Issue size: ₹10,603 crore
- Became the fourth most subscribed IPO in India, attracting bids worth nearly ₹3 lakh crore
- Anchor and institutional participation strong, while retail demand stayed muted
- Market debate centres on listing gains vs long-term asset-management growth
- Other IPO Developments
- Exim Routes IPO subscribed over 14 times
- Ashwini Container Movers and Stanbik Agro sailed through on the final day
- Upcoming IPO: Gujarat Kidney
- Price band: ₹108–114
- Issue size: ₹251 crore
- Four new IPOs worth ₹830 crore expected to hit Dalal Street next week
- ➡️ Fund managers remain cautious as IPO supply, valuations, and liquidity compete for investor attention.
- BNP Paribas sold a 14.7% stake in Geojit Financial Services
- Key buyers: ICICI Prudential Life, Bajaj Allianz Life, Equity Intelligence
- Bhavish Aggarwal sold Ola Electric shares via bulk deal to repay a ₹260 crore promoter loan
- Marico is in talks to acquire Cosmix (~₹300 crore) to expand its protein and nutrition portfolio
- TCS announced a $700 million acquisition of Coastal Cloud, strengthening its Salesforce consulting business
- Infosys, TCS, Wipro, Cognizant partnered with Microsoft for Agentic AI adoption, each deploying 50,000 Copilot licenses
- Current Account Deficit (CAD)
- HSBC expects CAD to ease sharply in Q4
- FY26 CAD may fall to 0.9%, helped by a narrowing trade deficit
- RBI Intervention
- Central bank received 2x bids at the USD/INR buy-sell swap auction
- Accepted $5.07 billion, signalling intent to smooth volatility
- Rupee Outlook
- Expected to trade in the 91–92/USD range till FY26-end
- Weak currency benefits exporters but adds equity volatility
- Metals Shine
- Hindustan Zinc jumped 8% to a fresh 52-week high as silver crossed ₹2 lakh/kg
- Hindustan Copper and other metal stocks gained up to 8% on China’s fiscal stimulus hopes
- Consumer & Retail
- Honasa Consumer rose after entering men’s grooming via Reginald Men acquisition
- Jewellery stocks stayed in focus as gold and silver prices surged
- Aviation Under Pressure
- IndiGo faced scrutiny after 5,000+ flight cancellations
- PIL filed in Delhi HC; management to appoint external experts
- Long-term outlook remains stable, but near-term consolidation likely
- Smallcap World Fund acquired a 0.66% stake in Kaynes Technology for ₹188 crore
- IDBI Bank gained traction as Fairfax emerged as a frontrunner in stake-sale discussions
- Long-short funds and SIFs are back in focus as investors look for alpha in choppy markets
- Motilal Oswal: Buy Tata Steel – Target ₹210
- Prabhudas Lilladher: Accumulate Tata Steel – Target ₹188
- Emkay Global: Buy Sandhar Technologies – Target ₹825
- ICICI Securities:
- Buy Mahanagar Gas – Target ₹1,535
- Buy Gulf Oil Lubricants – Target ₹1,610
- Analysts broadly favour industrials, private banks, metals, and selective consumption plays
- Experts advise caution against over-diversification, stressing the power of compounding in quality businesses.
- FIIs are expected to return in 2026, especially if global rates ease further.
- Domestic consumption, financials, and export-linked companies remain preferred themes.
- With valuations stretched, earnings visibility and balance-sheet strength are critical.
Indian markets are navigating a complex mix of foreign selling, currency pressure, IPO supply, and policy shifts. While headline indices remain range-bound, strong domestic flows, selective sector leadership, and robust corporate activity suggest resilience beneath the surface.
For investors, the message is clear:
👉 This is no longer a momentum market, but a stock-selection market.
Published by Barawakar |Stock Market Today – 16 Dec 2025
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