Nifty, Sensex, FII-DII Flows, Stocks to Watch on October 1, 2026

The Indian stock market enters October 1, 2026, with investors tracking a mix of global cues, elevated crude oil prices, rising bond yields, heavy foreign institutional selling and expectations surrounding the Reserve Bank of India’s upcoming monetary policy decision.

The September trading session ended on a volatile note, with the Sensex and Nifty facing pressure for a third consecutive session. While domestic institutional investors continued to provide support, foreign institutional investors remained aggressive sellers.

Global markets are also sending mixed signals. US equities ended on a mixed note, Asian markets opened unevenly, and the GIFT Nifty indicated a cautious start for Indian benchmarks.

Indian Stock Market Today: Key Points

• GIFT Nifty signals a cautious-to-weak start for Indian equities.

• Sensex and Nifty ended lower amid volatility on September 30.

• FIIs sold more than ₹10,000 crore of Indian equities on September 30.

• DIIs bought equities worth ₹11,271 crore during the session.

• September saw cumulative FII selling of around ₹44,013 crore.

• Nifty 50 has immediate support around 22,550–22,500.

• A break below 22,500 could increase selling pressure, according to technical-market commentary in the news.

• Bank Nifty closed above 54,500 and showed relative strength.

• Nifty IT gained as expectations of another near-term US Federal Reserve rate hike moderated.

• Crude oil prices, US bond yields and RBI rate expectations remain key market drivers.

• A number of stocks are in focus following orders, stake transactions, corporate announcements and regulatory developments.

Sensex and Nifty Outlook for October 1

Indian benchmarks remained volatile on September 30 as investors weighed global bond yields, crude oil prices, foreign outflows and domestic institutional buying.

The market updates placed the Nifty around the 22,620 area at the close, while the Sensex also finished marginally lower.

Technical commentary highlighted the 22,550–22,500 zone as an important near-term support area for the Nifty 50. A decisive move below this zone could increase selling pressure, with the April low near 22,200–22,182 being watched as another reference level.

At the same time, Bank Nifty displayed relative strength, closing above 54,500. The index also closed above the previous day’s high, with market commentary describing its immediate trend as sideways to bullish.

Investors will therefore watch whether banking stocks can continue providing support while broader-market volatility remains elevated.

FII Selling Remains a Major Market Concern

Foreign institutional investors remained net sellers for the fifth consecutive trading session on September 30.

According to the data:

• FIIs sold more than ₹10,000 crore of equities during the session.

• September’s cumulative FII selling reached approximately ₹44,013 crore.

• FIIs were net sellers in 16 of 21 trading sessions during September.

• DIIs bought approximately ₹11,271 crore on September 30.

The divergence between foreign selling and domestic institutional buying remains one of the important themes for the Indian market.

Strong DII participation has provided a cushion against overseas outflows, but sustained FII selling could continue to contribute to volatility, particularly if global yields and crude prices remain elevated.

Global Market Cues

US markets ended mixed after a softer-than-expected inflation reading reduced expectations of an October Federal Reserve rate hike.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 443.87 points, or 0.86%, to 50,906.05. The S&P 500 declined 19.30 points, or 0.25%, to 7,651.54, while the Nasdaq Composite gained 63.52 points, or 0.24%, to 26,861.06.

Despite the mixed session, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq recorded their second consecutive quarterly gains.

Asian markets were mixed in the updates, with Japan’s Nikkei showing gains while the Kospi declined. European markets had also remained positive in the previous session.

For Indian investors, movements in US bond yields, the dollar, crude oil and Asian equities will remain important before and during Thursday’s trading session.

US Bond Yields and Fed Expectations

US bond yields remain a significant concern for global equities.

The news highlighted a sharp rise in long-term US Treasury yields, with the 30-year yield reaching its highest level since June 2002 and the 10-year yield moving to a fresh high since 2007.

At the same time, expectations of additional Federal Reserve tightening have influenced currency and bond markets.

The dollar was heading towards its strongest month since June as traders priced in the possibility of further US rate increases.

Higher US yields can influence foreign portfolio flows into emerging markets, making the movement of the dollar and Treasury yields particularly important for Indian equities.

Crude Oil Becomes a Key Risk Factor

Oil prices remain another major market trigger.

According to analysts cited in the news, global oil production has declined by around 9 million barrels per day since March, while approximately 507 million barrels have been withdrawn from inventories.

Analysts estimated that the current market cushion could last around six to nine months.

Meanwhile, reports indicated that Gulf crude exports have recovered significantly from earlier disruptions.

For India, crude oil remains important because the country is a major importer of energy. A sustained increase in crude prices can influence inflation, the current account, corporate costs and the rupee.

Rupee Remains Under Pressure

The Indian rupee continued to trade around the ₹96-per-dollar zone.

The currency closed at approximately ₹95.81 per US dollar according to the market update.

The rupee has faced pressure from several factors, including elevated crude prices, dollar strength, foreign equity outflows and global bond-yield movements.

Currency movements will remain closely watched by investors because a weaker rupee can affect import-heavy sectors while potentially benefiting some export-oriented businesses.

RBI Rate-Hike Expectations in Focus

Expectations of an RBI rate increase have become an important domestic market theme.

Global brokerages have reportedly argued for earlier monetary tightening, while Shriram Life CIO Ajit Banerjee expects the RBI to potentially raise rates by 50 basis points by December.

Crisil Ratings, however, said India’s deleveraged corporate balance sheets and improving credit quality could provide a cushion against a possible 50-basis-point rate increase.

The upcoming RBI policy decision is therefore likely to remain a major trigger for banks, NBFCs, financial stocks and interest-rate-sensitive sectors.

Nifty IT Gains as Fed Rate-Hike Expectations Ease

IT stocks were among the notable performers in the market updates.

The Nifty IT index gained more than 2%, supported by reduced expectations of another immediate US Federal Reserve rate hike.

TCS, Tech Mahindra and HCL Technologies were among the major gainers, while several mid-cap IT stocks also advanced.

IT companies remain particularly sensitive to US economic conditions, technology spending and currency movements. Investors will continue to track the sector as the October trading series begins.

Stocks to Watch Today: October 1, 2026

Several companies are in focus because of corporate developments, orders, stake transactions and other announcements.

Aurobindo Pharma

Aurobindo Pharma’s arm Acrotech Biopharma has launched Adquey in the US. The development puts the pharmaceutical company in focus during Thursday’s trading session.

NCC

NCC is among the stocks listed in the market updates as being in focus on October 1.

Highway Infrastructure

Highway Infrastructure is also among the stocks attracting market attention.

Blue Dart Express

Blue Dart Express remains on the market’s watchlist following the latest company-related developments.

Symbiotec Pharma

Symbiotec Pharma is among the stocks highlighted for October 1.

Shadowfax Technologies

Shadowfax remains in focus after a significant stake sale by a TPG-backed investor.

The investor reduced its holding by around 4.18 percentage points, selling approximately 2.45 crore shares during the current quarter.

GNG Electronics

Blend Fund and Unifi Capital acquired a combined 3% stake in GNG Electronics.

GNG Electronics shares opened higher and closed at ₹686.75 on the NSE after gaining 1.77% despite profit booking during the session.

Avalon Technologies

Kotak Mahindra AMC acquired a 3.59% stake in Avalon Technologies.

IRB InvIT Fund

L&T acquired 4.33% units in IRB InvIT Fund, making the security another stock to watch.

Bata India

Bata India is also among the companies highlighted in the October 1 stocks-to-watch list.

Molbio Diagnostics

Motilal Oswal Alternates sold more than 2% of Molbio Diagnostics for approximately ₹306 crore.

Business Excellence Trust III sold 23.28 lakh shares at an average price of ₹1,315.01 per share, according to the BSE data.

Action Construction Equipment

Action Construction Equipment gained after receiving a Defence Ministry order. The company said the order is part of its efforts to expand its presence in the defence sector.

STL Networks

STL Networks hit the 5% upper circuit after emerging as the lowest bidder for a ₹250-crore RailTel order.

IRCON, RVNL and IRCTC

Railway PSU stocks attracted heavy trading activity, with IRCON, RVNL, IRCTC and other railway shares rising sharply.

IRCON shares jumped 20% to a one-month high of ₹122.96.

Bank Nifty Shows Relative Strength

Bank Nifty outperformed the broader benchmarks in the previous session.

The index closed above 54,500 and above the previous day’s high. Market commentary described the short-term trend as having shifted towards sideways bullish after the latest close.

Among major Nifty gainers were:

• ICICI Bank

• Kotak Mahindra Bank

• InterGlobe Aviation

• Wipro

• Tech Mahindra

Stocks among the notable losers included:

• Max Healthcare

• Apollo Hospitals

• SBI Life Insurance

• Eternal

• ONGC

Reliance Industries Raises ₹13,000 Crore Through Bonds

Reliance Industries raised approximately ₹13,000 crore through 10-year bonds at a 7.90% coupon, according to the reports.

State Bank of India was reported to have purchased nearly 40% of the bond offering.

The transaction comes against a backdrop of elevated borrowing costs and rising global bond yields.

Jio Financial Services and Allianz Invest in Insurance JV

Jio Financial Services and Allianz Europe have invested ₹320 crore each in Jio Allianz General Insurance.

The joint venture was incorporated earlier this year, and the latest capital infusion marks another development in the expansion of the insurance business.

IPO Market Remains Active

The primary market continues to see substantial activity.

Several companies have filed IPO documents with SEBI, including Vardhman Appliances, Shreejikrupa Project and Vishakha Renewables.

Vardhman Appliances’ proposed IPO includes:

• Fresh issue of up to ₹250 crore.

• Offer for sale of up to 2.50 crore equity shares.

Vishakha Renewables has filed a DRHP for a proposed ₹1,250-crore IPO. The company reported profit of ₹173.4 crore for FY26 compared with ₹56.5 crore in the previous year.

Matangi Rubber has also received SEBI approval for an IPO of 72.76 lakh shares, comprising a fresh issue of 57.61 lakh shares and an OFS of 15.15 lakh shares.

In addition, Inox Clean Energy has filed a DRHP for a proposed ₹10,000-crore IPO.

The market data also noted that IPOs delivered an average listing-day gain of around 14% in 2026, although individual IPO performance has varied significantly.

Government Extends Export Support Schemes

The government has extended the RoDTEP scheme until December 31, 2026, retaining the existing rates and value caps.

The extension applies to eligible exports from different categories, including domestic tariff area, advance authorisation, SEZ and export-oriented units.

The government has also extended the RoSCTL scheme for apparel, garments and made-ups exports until December 31, 2026, at existing rates and under prevailing guidelines.

The measures are relevant for exporters and companies in sectors including textiles and manufacturing.

Windfall Tax on Diesel and ATF Exports Cut

The government has reduced the windfall tax on diesel and aviation turbine fuel exports from October 1.

The petrol export duty remains at ₹0.50 per litre for the next fortnight.

The change is particularly relevant for oil marketing companies and refiners, while crude prices remain an important factor for the energy sector.

India’s External Debt Rises to $778.2 Billion

RBI data showed India’s external debt increased to $778.2 billion in the June quarter.

Loans represented the largest component of external debt at 34.3%, followed by currency and deposits at 22.2%, trade credit and advances at 19.1%, and debt securities at 16.5%.

India’s net international liabilities also increased to $220.3 billion during the April-June quarter.

Fiscal Deficit Reaches 41.9% of Full-Year Target

India’s fiscal deficit reached approximately 41.9% of the full-year target by August.

The data showed that the Centre’s fiscal deficit stood at around ₹7.10 lakh crore at the end of August, while major subsidy expenditure increased to ₹1.87 lakh crore from ₹1.50 lakh crore a year earlier.

Investors will continue to track government expenditure, capital expenditure and fiscal management as the financial year progresses.

Rabi MSP Hike Could Influence Rural Demand

The Cabinet has approved increases in minimum support prices for rabi crops.

The reports indicated that the increases could influence farmers’ acreage decisions, with analysts suggesting that higher margins for pulses and oilseeds could encourage some shift away from wheat.

The expected margin over the all-India weighted average cost of production was reported at:

• Wheat: 106%

• Rapeseed and mustard: 96%

• Lentil: 92%

• Gram: 59%

• Barley: 58%

• Safflower: 50%

The policy could have implications for rural incomes, agricultural demand and companies exposed to rural consumption.

India Inc Remains Resilient Despite Global Risks

Crisil Ratings said India’s corporate sector remains relatively resilient, supported by deleveraged balance sheets and improving credit quality.

At the same time, S&P Global expects India’s economic growth to moderate from 7.8% in FY26 to around 7% in FY27 amid global uncertainty and energy-related risks.

The outlook for the second half of FY27 will therefore depend on domestic demand, inflation, interest rates, crude prices and global trade conditions.

September Market Performance: Volatility Remains High

September ended as a difficult month for Indian equities.

The market reports described September as the Nifty’s worst monthly decline in eight years and its weakest series of monthly declines since 2001.

The combination of foreign selling, crude oil concerns, high global bond yields, currency pressure and expectations of tighter monetary policy contributed to the cautious market environment.

As October begins, investors will closely monitor whether domestic institutional buying and sector-specific strength can offset continuing global headwinds.

What Investors Should Watch on October 1

The major triggers for Thursday’s session include:

1. GIFT Nifty movement before the opening bell.

2. Nifty support near 22,550–22,500.

3. Bank Nifty’s ability to sustain levels above 54,500.

4. FII and DII activity.

5. US Treasury yields and Federal Reserve expectations.

6. Crude oil prices and Middle East developments.

7. Rupee movement against the US dollar.

8. RBI rate-hike expectations.

9. September auto-sales data.

10. Corporate announcements, orders and IPO developments.

Indian Stock Market Today: Bottom Line

The October 1 trading session begins with investors balancing strong domestic institutional support against heavy FII selling and challenging global macroeconomic conditions.

Banking and IT stocks showed relative strength in the previous session, while pharma and metal stocks faced profit booking. Crude oil, US bond yields, the rupee and RBI rate expectations remain key variables for the broader market.

The Nifty’s 22,550–22,500 zone remains an important technical reference in the market commentary, while Bank Nifty’s performance could influence overall market sentiment.

With the October series now underway, investors will be watching global cues, institutional flows, corporate announcements and upcoming macroeconomic events closely.